partial immunity

Impact of waning immunity against SARS-CoV-2 severity exacerbated by vaccine hesitancy

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has generated a tremendous number of infections across the world. Recovery from these infections, combined with the onset of large-scale vaccination, have led to rapidly-changing population-level immunological landscapes. In …

Medium-term scenarios of COVID-19 as a function of immune uncertainties and chronic disease

As the SARS-CoV-2 trajectory continues, the longer-term immuno-epidemiology of COVID-19, the dynamics of Long COVID, and the impact of escape variants are im- portant outstanding questions. We examine these remaining uncertainties with a simple …

Vaccine nationalism and the dynamics and control of SARS-CoV-2

Vaccines provide powerful tools to mitigate the enormous public health and economic costs that the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic continues to exert globally, yet vaccine distribution remains unequal among countries. To examine the potential …

Epidemiological and evolutionary considerations of SARS-CoV-2 vaccine dosing regimes

In the face of vaccine dose shortages and logistical challenges, various deployment strategies are being proposed to increase population immunity levels to SARS-CoV-2. How timing of delivery of the second dose affects infection burden but also …

Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years

The future trajectory of the Covid-19 pandemic hinges on the dynamics of adaptive immunity against SARS-CoV2; however, salient features of the immune response elicited by natural infection or vaccination are still uncertain. We use simple …

Demographic buffering -- titrating the effects of birth rate and imperfect immunity on epidemic dynamics

Host demography can alter the dynamics of infectious disease. In the case of perfectly immunizing infections, observations of strong sensitivity to demographic variation have been mechanistically explained through analysis of the …